A recent study by Lakehead University in Thunder Bay shows an aging workforce in Northwestern Ontario could lead to skill shortages and economic problems for the region within the next 12 years.
The study—prepared for FedNor and the two local training and adjustment boards—is based on 2001 census data and shows the region’s workforce is aging faster than that of the province as a whole.
“Over the next eight to 13 years, many sectors of the regional workforce will be severely affected by large numbers of retirements,” Lakehead U. sociology professor Chris Southcott wrote in his report, “The Effect of an Aging Workforce on Future Skill Strategies in Northwestern Ontario.”^“The fact that, over the past 20 years, the region has been experiencing high rates of youth outmigration and has been unable to attract large number of immigrants, suggests that the region could be facing fairly high labour and skill shortages in some sectors,” Prof. Southcott added.
The sectors which appear most in danger are education, health, and some skilled labour.
In Fort Frances, trade labour will be hardest hit—with 66.67 percent of stationary engineers, power station operators, and electrical trades and telecommunications occupations retiring before 2011, according to the study.
That number jumps to 80 percent retiring before 2016. The average age of these workers is about 56.
The town also will see a large number of teacher retirements, with 40 percent of secondary school teachers and 21 percent of elementary and kindergarten ones retiring over the next seven years.
Those numbers jump to 70 percent of secondary teachers and 52.63 percent of elementary and kindergarten teachers in the next 12 years.
The average age of high school teachers in Fort Frances is 43 while the average age of elementary ones is about 55.
The changes in the health sector will be less dramatic, with 33 percent of nurse aides and orderlies, as well as 21.43 percent of technical- related occupations in health, retiring before 2011.
The study reported no registered nurses in Fort Frances who would retire in the next seven years.
But once again, those numbers jump considerably when looking 14 years ahead. Some 50 percent of nurse aides and orderlies, along with 57 percent of technical-related occupations in health, are expected to retire before 2016.
The average age of nurse aides and orderlies here is about 37 while the average age of people in technical positions in health is about 44.
“The economic impact of an aging workforce will be to reduce the size of the regional economy,” Prof. Southcott wrote. “The size of that impact depends critically on the proportion of workforce retirements that will be replaced.”
Fort Frances Times
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