In a report for the Ministry of Education, the Northwest Catholic District School Board is predicting an average two percent decline in enrolment at its five schools over the next eight years—given past enrolment numbers and population trends across the northwest.
The ministry requires all board across the province to submit a 10-year Capital Grant Plan to 2015-16, including projected enrolment figures and facility needs.
“The ministry uses that so they can see what kind of capital projects need to be planned and budgeted for,” Education Director Mary-Catherine Kelly explained at Tuesday night’s regular board meeting here.
Although the report includes projections up until 2015-16, Kelly noted the numbers up to and including 2013-14 are “very real numbers” while those after that “are more of a guestimate.”
Current enrolment at the board for the 2005-06 school year is 1,462 students. By 2013-14, that number is expected to drop to 1,128 across the board.
By 2015-16, it could drop even further to 1,056.
While the average rate of decline was calculated at about two percent. Kelly noted the five schools’ enrolment projections were determined using different rates of decline, depending on the community where they are located.
In Fort Frances, for instance, the rate of decline was calculated to be about 1.3 percent for both St. Michael’s and St. Francis.
The current enrolment at St. Michael’s is 256, but that could drop to 194 by 2013-14. The school has a fairly new portable which could be relocated when it is no longer needed— possibly by the 2008-09 school year.
St. Francis currently has 290 students, which is expected to drop to about 206 over the next eight years.
That school is expected to face a surplus of space in coming years, which could be dealt with by phasing out its four older portables, Kelly noted.
At Sacred Heart School in Sioux Lookout, the rate of decline in enrolment was put at one percent.
“Sioux Lookout was a very difficult one to do because the trends are inconsistent,” Superintendent of Business Chris Howarth remarked.
The municipality has shown fluctuations in population in the past, including a 3.3 percent growth between 1996 and 2001, according to Statistics Canada.
“It’s one of those things we’re going to have to monitor from year to year. The new growth is not necessarily coming from within the town,” said Howarth, noting some of the growth can be attributed to First Nations people from northern communities settling in Sioux Lookout.
Sacred Heart is expected to need the addition of a portable in 2007-08.
Meanwhile, Our Lady of the Way School in Stratton is expected to drop from 77 students this year to 51 in 2013-14.
Kelly noted there’s been a “steady decline” in enrolment there and that “every class is double-graded,” though there continues to be a strong demand from local residents for Catholic education.
The enrolment projection at St. Joseph’s School in Dryden was calculated using an anticipated three percent drop from year to year.
Kelly cited the downsizing of the mill there in 2003 and the ensuing economic conditions as the reasoning behind the figure, but admitted “it’s hard to predict.”
The school is expected to drop from its current enrolment of 480 students to just 338 in 2013-14.
Based on these projections, the board is not proposing any additions or new schools over the 10-year period. The ministry is recommending boards with declining enrolment to investigate the amalgamation of schools.
“In our case, where we typically have one school per community, it does not make sense to amalgamate schools,” the board’s report read.
The only community with two schools that could amalgamate is Fort Frances, “but enrolment during the period of this plan does not indicate such a need,” it noted.
Also at Tuesday night’s meeting, the Catholic heard a report from Kelly on the possibility of renovating the board’s Fort Frances office.
In a previous capital plan, the board had set aside $170,000 to bring the building up to code according to the Accessibility Act. The current board meeting room is located in a portable attached to the original office and has a step that is not wheelchair accessible.
“It’s important we meet the mandate of the accessibility code,” Kelly noted.
The board will proceed with having drawings made to look at possible options, though she said they would not hire an architect at this early stage in order to reduce costs.
In other news, the board’s website currently is undergoing a redesign.
Trustees were invited to give their input as to what information should be included on the site and how it should be organized.
Fort Frances Times
Local News from Across the Rainy River District
