The Canadian Press
SHERBROOKE, Que.–Finance minister Bill Morneau yesterday painted a rosy picture of Canada’s economic future, despite diplomatic and political upheavals around the world that could disrupt global trade and impede growth just as this country prepares to head to the polls in October.
Morneau’s upbeat assessment came as he arrived for the start of a three-day cabinet retreat–the first meeting of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s cabinet since he conducted a small shuffle earlier this week.
The retreat is taking place against a backdrop of chaos engulfing the British government as it tries to extricate the United Kingdom from the European Union and escalating diplomatic tensions between Canada and China.
“We’re watching closely what’s going on in the United Kingdom,” Morneau said. “It’s obviously an enormous challenge for the Conservative government there.
“We don’t see this as something that’s directly problematic for the Canadian economy but obviously it’s something that’s difficult for the global economy,” he conceded.
Canada, which has a free trade deal with the EU, will work to continue a “very strong trading relationship” with the U.K. when–or if–it exits the European Union, he added.
With respect to the Chinese economic powerhouse, Morneau acknowledged Canadians increasingly are reluctant to pursue business and trade opportunities in China since that country detained two Canadians, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, on national security grounds.
China also sentenced to death another Canadian, Robert Schellenberg, who was convicted of drug-trafficking.
Those developments have come in apparent retaliation for Canada’s arrest last month of Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou, at the behest of the Americans who want her extradited to face fraud charges related to American sanctions on Iran.
Canada also has felt economic impact from its diplomatic dispute with Saudi Arabia, triggered when Foreign Affairs minister Chrystia Freeland issued a tweet demanding the immediate release of human rights activists, including Samar Badawi, the sister of imprisoned blogger Raif Badawi.
The desert kingdom retaliated by kicking out Canada’s envoy, demanding all Saudi students in Canada return home, suspending flights to Canada, and barring new trade agreements.
Yesterday, Trudeau met privately with Raif Badawi’s wife, Ensaf Haidar, who asked him to grant her husband Canadian citizenship–apparently hoping that might help secure his release from a Saudi prison.
But some experts fear Canada’s decision last week to accept runaway Saudi teenager Rahaf al-Qunun as a refugee only will further enrage the Saudis and cause more negative repercussions.
Morneau acknowledged “there are certainly headwinds with global trade tensions.” But he shrugged off predictions the world may be teetering on the edge of another global recession.
The International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development all are forecasting “positive global growth expectations,” he said.
And in Canada, private-sector economists “are all looking toward a period of sustained growth.”
“So we’re not actually looking right now with any expectation of difficult times,” Morneau noted.