It is known as the Rumsfeld matrix, and it originates from a 2002 Pentagon briefing by former U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, who used four categories to explain intelligence gaps during the lead‑up to the Iraq War.
“As we know, there are known knowns. There are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns. That is to say, we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don’t know we don’t know.”
When we were remodelling our home 46 years ago, the electrical contractor let us know that the wiring in the house had to be replaced. The plumbers and heating people let us know beforehand that all the plumbing and the heating had to be replaced. It was heated with a hot water system that was connected to a boiler in the basement that had been converted from coal to oil.
Those were the knowns. We suspected that there was no insulation in the house and that had to be rectified by putting Styrofoam on the outside and filling the walls with pink insulation. Blown insulation was put into the attic to meet the standards of the day.
The first unknown was the building construction, where studs went from the foundation to the ceiling on the second floor. What we didn’t know was that before the rooms were divided, lathe was installed across the ceiling, and when all the lathe was removed, the walls floated; one of the surprises was the thickness of the basement walls. The stone came from the canal construction.
Councils across Ontario face the knowns and unknowns. When I sat on council, and Scott Street was being replaced with new sewer, water, storm sewers and sidewalks, the unknown that popped up was found at the centre of the intersection of Scott and Portage Avenue. A huge outcropping of granite was discovered. Drilling had missed that piece of granite.
Planning, engineering and cost estimating try to discover all the unknowns. Even then, councils and engineering add in a budget of contingencies for the unknown. Councils, in their budgeting process, need to know the costs of maintaining existing operations, be aware of where grants will be coming from for projects and make plans for future opportunities.
That requires councils to ask all the questions about proposed projects; they need to have all the known issues answered and plans implemented. For the unknown issues, councils must make contingency plans. That may be making a choice to either proceed if outside funding fails or choosing to cancel a project or postpone the project to another year. When the unknown unknowns occur, council must go back and start the planning all over.
Council in their annual planning approves budgets, capital purchases and projects and directs staff to implement those approved actions. And in approving projects and budgets, councillors must have the time to investigate, discuss the options and be provided with accurate costs well in advance of making final decisions. Without that time, councils frequently end up backtracking and appear dysfunctional.
