As Prime Minister Mark Carney recently told the world: “We are a middle power.”
There was no exclamation point, but the statement resonated with every other middle power in the room at Davos. It was a quiet declaration of reality – and a rebuke to the comforting fiction of the past decade that suggested countries could secure their futures simply by aligning themselves with superpowers.
In 2025, that illusion collapsed. We learned that a single nation could upend global treaties and longstanding agreements with the stroke of a pen. Europe learned a similar lesson when another superpower shattered the post–Second World War peace by invading Ukraine. Western nations are now confronting the same truth: dependence is vulnerability.
Canada, however, is discovering that it has choices – and leverage. Ordinary Canadians are already exercising it. Many “snowbirds” have chosen not to winter in the southern United States. Border residents are opting not to cross for shopping or leisure. That translates into dollars missing from U.S. cash registers, and U.S. businesses are feeling the pain. Europe has learned that cashing in U.S. Treasury bonds carries economic consequences for Washington. Canadian airlines have already cancelled roughly 10 per cent of flights to Florida, Texas, Las Vegas, California and other southern destinations. Those aircraft are now flying to new markets across Central America.
Canada can – and does – have an impact on the U.S. economy.
U.S. President Donald Trump has now threatened a 100 per cent tariff on all Canadian goods entering the United States beginning Feb. 1 if we signed a free-trade deal with China. The provocation? Canada’s prime minister seeking agreements with China to reduce tariffs on Canadian grain, beef and seafood. In return, China will export 49,000 electric vehicles to Canada – the same number imported in 2024.
It is difficult to imagine U.S. households welcoming another doubling of heating bills or drivers applauding new spikes in gasoline and diesel prices. Nor is it likely that American farmers will praise the “child king” when fertilizer prices double.
U.S. editorials are already lamenting that Canada is opening new markets for oil and natural gas that once flowed almost exclusively south. They note, too, that produce and fruit prices will rise as higher fertilizer costs reduce crop yields. Home builders are warning that tariffs on Canadian lumber are pushing the cost of new homes even higher.
For generations, it has been reassuring to know that our closest trading partner was next door. But Carney’s efforts to open new markets are expanding Canada’s horizons – providing access to 600 million consumers in Europe, 1.45 billion in India and 439 million in South America. These are vast markets, and other nations are recognizing Canada as a destination for high-quality, secure investment.
Carney campaigned as an outsider, but he is very much an insider –one who understands that Canada’s greatest opportunities lie beyond its historic boundaries, if we are willing to look outward.
