Elgin-Middlesex-London MPP Rob Flack says the social and financial changes fomented in the office of U.S. President Donald Trump this week will not only pose a serious threat to the livelihoods of Elgin County farmers but may also trigger an unwanted provincial election in Ontario.
Ontario’s Minister of Agriculture, Food and Agribusiness also told the Aylmer Express in a recent interview that he is heading to Washington in the coming weeks to raise his concerns about U.S. tariffs on Canadian agricultural products. Premier Doug Ford will also be in the U.S. in early February, joining other Canadian premiers confronting the U.S. administration.
“One person decides who goes to the polls or not,” said MPP Flack, referring to Premier Ford’s prerogative. “The issue the premier has with the government (is), I think the cost of these Trump tariffs will make the costs of the pandemic look small and it is daunting.”
A 2021 report by the Financial Accountability Office of Ontario shows that federal and provincial direct support measures provided to the province in response to the COVID-19 pandemic totalled $170.3 billion from 2019-20 to 2022-23, with federal measures totalling $144.7 billion and provincial measures totalling $35.4 billion.
“To invest 10s, upon 10s, upon 10s of billions of dollars isn’t what we went to the people with in 2022,” added MPP Flack, referring to the Progressive Conservatives’ current mandate. “So, I know that’s weighing on him (Premier Ford).
“That being said, that would be the compelling reason if we did go to the polls,” he said. “If (President) Trump wasn’t doing this, I highly doubt that we’d go to the polls.”
An early provincial election could also impact Conservative Party of Canada leader and Carleton MP Pierre Poilievre’s overtures for an early federal election to defeat the government of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, the federal Liberal representative from Papineau.
Some political followers wonder whether voter fatigue would set in if one election followed too closely to the other.
“Having back-to-back elections is not good,” said MPP Flack, “but if we wait to our normal mandate time, which is June of 2026, there likely will be a federal election before then.”
Ontario’s next provincial election must he held on or before June 4, 2026, while the next federal election must take place on or before October 20, 2025.
Politics aside, MPP Flack’s immediate priority is to somehow protect Ontario farmers from President Trump’s threat to impose a 25 percent tariff on all goods coming into the U.S. from Canada.
“When you think of agriculture in Ontario … you think of … cows, corn, soybeans, wheat, tractors, farmers,” he said. “When you think of it from the farm gate, right through to what you’re going to have for lunch, it employs 871,000 people, one-in-nine jobs in Ontario.
“It’s bigger than steel, it’s bigger than tech, it’s bigger than auto,” explained MPP Flack. “We exported $26.2 billion out of the province last year (and) 82.2 percent went to the U.S. We imported $38.5 billion, (with) 62 percent from the U.S.
“Sure, I am (concerned),” he said. “It’s the fastest-growing retail segment in North America.
“Our agri-foods trade between Ontario and the U.S. is basically balanced, with a slight trade deficit, so why tariff what’s working?”, asked MPP Flack. “Tariff is punitive (and it) just hurts consumers, but here’s the issue: he (President Trump) has promised how much in tax cuts? Where’s the money coming from? Mexico, Canada, whoever.”
Drew Spoelstra, President of the Ontario Federation of Agriculture (OFA), shares MPP Flack’s concerns.
“There are countless benefits that both countries enjoy because of our long history as reliable trading partners across all sectors of the economy, and it’s important for Canada and the U.S. to maintain an integrated economy that allows goods to flow across the border in both directions without disruption,” said Mr. Spoelstra. “If our costs on the farm go up, our consumers will feel it at the grocery store.
“With (the Jan. 20) news that the tariffs will not go into effect today, there is an opportunity for all of us – our Premiers, our federal government, our agricultural stakeholders – to work to change the course and continue to try to convince the (U.S.) president and his administration that this is the wrong approach,” added Mr. Spoelstra, a Binbrook farmer. “We’re all in this together. It’s a Team Canada approach that we need right now.”
