The analysis of variation

Dear editor,

When a subset of a population reacts differently than the total population to a stimulus, there are usually reasons for this variance.

An obvious situation occurs in the world today: COVID 19 is the stimulus. Let’s look at some examples:

Northwestern Ontario is clearly a subset of Ontario, yet has fewer cases of COVID per capita than the province, and therefore requires analysis.

One obvious observation is that we are spread out, and where we are congregated, the density is also low. Also, we have very few shopping facilities that gather large numbers of people: no super stores, no malls. Recreation and exercise for the entire population has been a problem throughout the pandemic. Here in the northwest, we tend to get both outside, and we know this is safer than gyms and other indoor facilities.

There are neighbourhoods within the city of Toronto that have a much higher per capita rate of infection than the city, and this has been analyzed extensively.

High rise apartments are major problems, with crowded elevators, poorly ventilated hallways, and often overcrowding in the apartments. The streets that these buildings are on are constantly jam packed, with people being much too close to one another.

Two examples from our province.

Globally, we have another example.

A country that has approximately five per cent of the world’s population has contributed 20 per cent of the world’s deaths.

This is far beyond a statistical aberration. Even if there were twice as many deaths per capita, there may be an argument for ignoring the situation. But four times? Why is this?

To further exacerbate the problem, this country boasts of being one of the richest in the world, with an outstanding health system, a top notch educational program, and is the best country in which to live.

So, given all those attributes, why are they killing so many of their citizens? How do we analyze this variance? What can be wrong in this country?

It just does not seem possible. Someone help me out.

Paul Sveinson