Dear editor,
I have sent the following to CBC Ontario Morning. They have not responded:
Just before Christmas and again this morning, December 29, you interviewed people presenting the cause for and value of the transition from gasoline/diesel to EV vehicles. While there are several things that should also be considered, I will present an almost impossible barrier to overcome if a successful transition to EV’s will occur. First, to gain some credibility, I will tell you some things about me. From 1998, the year the Electricity Act was passed which was intended to deregulate the electric utility industry in Ontario, and I was serving as President of the Municipal Electric Association representing the 307 electric utilities in Ontario, and serving also in my regular job,
President of the Peterborough Utilities, until 2006, when I retired, I was a regular on Ontario Morning when there was a discussion about the electric utility industry. Ron McKeen usually contacted me and made arrangement for the call from your studio. Since retirement , among other things, l served on the Review Panel of the Electric Safety Authority, commonly referred to as electrical inspection, for about 6 years, and I also served on the Technical Panel of the Independent Electricity System Operator, the body that makes the rules that govern the operation of Ontario’s wholesale electricity system, for 8 years. Also I have, and continue to, serve on the board of InnPower, the electric utility that serves Innisfil and south Barrie, since 2000. I am presently serving as the Board Chair. The comments below are mine alone and may or may not reflect the views of any of my associates. Below are some calculations of the additional demand on Ontario’s electricity system will be if the Federal governments mandatory EV sales are met.
Federal requirements: 20% of new car sales to be EV by 2026, 60% by 2030 and 100% by 2035.
Total Ontario new vehicle sales in 2020 was 646,275. I will use this number for all of my calculations, in spite of the fact that since then new vehicle sales have increased, and in spite of the fact that Canada is bringing an additional 500,000 to 1 Million new people each year, and they too will need vehicles.
I will use 8 kilowatts (KW) for all of my calculations in spite of the fact that EV chargers typically range from 8 kw to 12 kw, depending on slow or fast charge.
I will also assume that there is no increase in the percentage of EV sales from 2026 to 2030 and no increase from 2030 to 2035. All of these assumptions will probably give a lower total electric demand than what will happen in reality if the Federal requirements are met.
2023 EV sales are expected to be 7.2%. 0.072 x 646,275 = 46,531 EV’s x 8 kw= 372,254 kw, or 372 megawatts (Mw), added each year for 2024 and 2025. 1 kw is about the amount of electric power required to operate a full size electric kettle.
2026 EV sales required 20% 0.20 x 646,275 = 129,255 EV’s x 8 kw = 1 ,034 Mw, plus another 1,034 Mw for 2027, 2028 and 2029.
2030 EV sales required 60% 0.60 x 646,275 = 387,765 EV’s x 8 kw = 3,102 Mw, plus another 3,102 Mw for each of 2031, 2032, 2033 and 2034.
2035 EV sales required 100% 1.0 x 646,275 = 646,275 EV’s x 8 kw = 5,170 Mw, plus another 5,170 Mw for 2036 and into the future.
If all generation in Ontario is working we have about 35,120 Mw, however, the sun doesn’t always shine, the wind doesn’t always blow, there seldom is the perfect amount of water for hydraulic generation. Too little or too much results in lower production, and all generation requires planned and often unplanned maintenance.
Ontario’s peak demand at present is in the summer and is 24,446 Mw. There is no significant hydraulic sources that can be developed, solar and wind are not dispatchable, i.e. you can’t tell them when to run. In the past, nuclear stations have taken about 13 years to construct, and nuclear stations are not adept to fast changes in electric load.
So, most likely scenario is we need to add about another 25,000 Mw of generation by 2035. Thereafter it increases even more. That is the equivalent of seven Darlington generating stations. Might there be a problem getting skilled workers and materials to build that? Might there be significant public opposition to a number of new nuclear stations? Might there be public opposition to the construction of the new transmission lines to send all of this power to the end user? Will all of the electricity distributors in the Province be able to build new transformer and distribution stations in time to handle the new load?
The late odds maker “Jimmy the Greek”, James Snyder, if with us, would probably give odds that 100 to 1 it all of this won’t happen per the Federal requirements.
Oh, by the way, we are only paying about 80% of the real cost of electricity. Consumers are not receiving the correct price signal.
Robert (Bob) G. Lake P.Eng.
Innisfil, Ont.
